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Even though the Virginia gubernatorial race is just one race in one state (OK, commonwealth), Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory will reverberate around the country and set the early stage for the 2022 midterm elections. Considering the next big Election Day is a year away, there will be plenty of time to digest the results from […]
Under normal conditions, Democrats win in Virginia. But these clearly aren’t normal conditions. In the final moments of the 2021 race for governor, it’s clear that the race is coming down to the wire and Democrats no longer have a discernible advantage. We’re changing our rating from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up, a positive sign for […]
A month after polls closed, California has finally finished counting all the ballots for the recall election. In the end, it wasn’t close — Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom prevailed 62-38 percent. While polling pointed to a relatively competitive race for a few weeks, Newsom actually matched his margin from the 2018 gubernatorial election. Democrats in […]
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Even though this fall's race for governor in Virginia is just one race in one state, it will determine the initial narrative of the midterm elections next year. Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are concerned about President Joe Biden’s […]
It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt. Polling The FiveThirtyEight polling average currently gives Newsom a 16-point advantage in his effort to […]
Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG. The complicated logistics of the California recall process created a noticeable divide in the messaging and broadcast strategies of Democrats and Republicans. While those against the Sept. 14 recall only needed to convince Californians to show up to the polls and vote “no,” Republican candidates in favor […]
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