Analysis

4279 Results

South Carolina Senate: Graham’s Death Adds Uncertainty to Competitive Race

JUL 12, 2026

The sudden passing of GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham adds uncertainty to a South Carolina seat on the edge of the Senate battleground. According to state law, there will be a primary to choose a new nominee for the full term. The candidate filing period opens “the second Tuesday after a death,” which would be July 21, and closes…

Kentucky 6: New Poll Fuels Democratic Optimism

by Inshara Ali

JUL 10, 2026

Republicans won Kentucky’s 6th District by 26 points in 2024, but Democrats believe the seat belongs on the House battlefield in 2026. After falling short in the Republican wave of 2010, Andy Barr was elected to Congress two years later and never looked back — save for a high-profile race against Democrat Amy McGrath in 2018. When Barr…

Florida 14: Calling All Castors

by Inshara Ali

JUL 9, 2026

Democrat Kathy Castor has represented Tampa in Congress for nearly two decades and has never lost an election by less than double digits. But redistricting and a new Republican-drawn congressional map has made her one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country. In the face of strong, historical midterm trends against the party that controls the presidency,…

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

by Nicholas Demba, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

JUL 9, 2026

Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%) and 2020 (54%). Primary Aug. 18. The Alaska Supreme Court ruled that retired teacher Dan Sullivan can appear on the ballot after the state Division of Elections removed him because they said he “did not file in good faith” since he has the same name as the incumbent. Even if it…

House Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

by Inshara Ali, Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Nicholas Demba

JUL 9, 2026

Alabama’s 2nd District. (Montgomery and southeastern Alabama) Shomari Figures, D. Trump 57%. The U.S. Supreme Court’s June ruling in Louisiana v. Callais allowed the state to return to a 2023 congressional map in which the 2nd District is much more Republican. But despite the challenge, Figures is running for re-election. The legal proceedings forced the GOP primary to…

Colorado Primary Results: Rough Night for Washington

by Nicholas Demba

JUN 30, 2026

After seeing House members in Georgia, South Dakota, South Carolina and Iowa fail to make the jump to statewide office and a pair of House incumbents losing primaries in New York last week, there was increased national attention on a handful of races in Colorado to see if Washington is a visible stain on candidates’ resumes. Here’s what…

Montana Senate: New Poll Confirms GOP Edge

by Jacob Rubashkin

JUN 30, 2026

When Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines dropped his re-election bid at the last minute earlier this year, he injected some intrigue to a sleepy contest. For a moment, the race looked poised to crash the Senate battleground. But a new poll obtained by Inside Elections shows Republicans remain favored to hold onto the open seat, despite a worsening…

2026 Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026): Republican Rebound?

by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

JUN 25, 2026

As Republicans face down a national environment and unpopular president that imperils their hold on the House — and increasingly, the Senate — the party has looked to gubernatorial races as an opportunity to make the best of an otherwise challenging cycle. Over the past decade, Democrats have picked up a net of eight governorships. But many of…

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

JUN 25, 2026

ALABAMA. Open; Kay Ivey (R), term-limited. Sen. Tommy Tuberville cleared a procedural hurdle in early June when the state GOP ruled that he met the party’s residency requirements to be the nominee for governor. Tuberville still faces a lawsuit alleging that he fails the state Constitution’s requirement that the governor must be a citizen of Alabama for at…