I’ve been observing recently how much supposedly big news about the Presidential race will ultimately have little or no impact on the outcome of the 2008 Presidential contest, even for the Democratic and Republican nominations. That fact, of course, doesn’t make these developments in the Presidential race any less newsworthy or fun. It just means […]
I’ve often yammered that off-off-year gubernatorial races don’t necessarily predict what will happen the following year, when the entire nation goes to the polls in a national election that includes federal races. And I see no reason to change that conclusion. That said, 2007 is not without national implications. Primarily, those implications are psychological, but […]
Now that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has announced that his wife is once again fighting cancer but that he remains in the presidential race, it’s time to ask the obvious question: Is the Democratic race a two-person contest between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) or a three-way race with […]
For some Democrats, including political strategists Mara Vanderslice and Eric Sapp of Common Good Strategies, the answer to whether Democrats should pursue evangelical voters is a no-brainer. Vanderslice, the founder of the political consulting firm that seeks to help Democratic officeholders and candidates appeal to religious — specifically evangelical — voters, and Sapp, a senior […]
The new March 23, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage […]
Click here for the accompanying Close Calls chart. We are just a couple of months into the 2008 election cycle, but already House targets for next year are being thrown about wildly, with the usual supportive demographic and electoral data. Unfortunately, all numbers aren’t equally useful in discovering who is at serious risk of losing […]
Nobody should be surprised by the overreaction to the Hillary Clinton/Apple pseudo TV spot posted on YouTube. Reporters (and political consultants) simply love anything new and creative, even if its political impact is non-existent. The ad, fashioned after an Apple ad from 1984, got tons of airtime earlier this week as the cable networks and […]
Ladies and gentlemen, tonight the role of Hamlet, previously played by former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D), will be played by Chuck Hagel. After a few days of frenzied speculation about whether Hagel would seek the Republican nomination for president, the Nebraska Senator announced on Monday that he would make a decision later in […]
The following are excerpts from an op-ed piece in the Sunday, March 18, 2007 in the Los Angeles Times. At this point in past presidential cycles, much of the campaign activity would be going on behind the scenes. Operatives would be focused on raising money, putting together state organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire and […]
Each presidential election cycle is unique, but you can count on certain developments every time. There are candidate boomlets, questions about the frontrunners, talk of deadlocked conventions and multiple scenarios of various credibility. Scenarios are a lot like opinions or blogs — pretty much everybody has one. But at least I’m usually reasonably comfortable with […]