Analysis

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Senate Outlook: Steady as She Goes

The fight for control of the U.S. Senate in November is remarkable for two main reasons. First, Democrats seem poised to make significant gains — the kind of gains that, even if they fall short of winning 51 seats later this year, should leave the party well positioned for 2008. Second, the contours of the […]

Swimming Upstream: GOP Opportunities in the House

Plenty of ink has been spilled about the Democrats, their recruiting, and their quest to net the fifteen seats necessary to gain the majority in the House. But Democrats may actually need to takeover sixteen or seventeen seats in November to compensate for potential losses of their own. In the last 50 years, no party […]

Will White House Shake Up Alter Public Opinion?

As Rob Portman moves into a new Administration post and Scott McClellan moves out of one, some members of the national media are abuzz. Will this help President George W. Bush as he and his party head to the ’06 midterm elections? The answer is no. Bush haters, of course, won’t change their opinions no […]

New Print Edition: House Outlook

The new April 21, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.) House Outlook For 2006 Stuart Rothenberg While Democrats have failed to recruit the top tier candidates that they would like in places such as Arizona 1, Pennsylvania 15, Missouri 6 and Iowa […]

California 50: Well, Let’s Not Exaggerate Things

The press releases from national Democrats about last week’s special election to succeed disgraced former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) are so out of sync with the actual election results that I don’t even know where to begin. “Francine’s dramatic win shows that Democratic, independent and Republican voters simply want change,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman […]

A June Loss in San Diego Could Spell November Disaster for Republicans

A win on June 6 by Democrat Francine Busby in the special election runoff to replace Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th Congressional District would be more than a symbolic victory for the Democrats. Democrats would then need a net gain of only fourteen seats, but more importantly, the field of competitive open seats would […]

California 50: Race Far From Over

The result of Tuesday’s special election in California’s 50th Congressional District has Democrats claiming the mantle of victory and foreshadowing sweeping change in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November election. But the reality of the situation is much less clear. This week’s election was not a win for Democrat Francine Busby. She was […]

California 50: By the Numbers

Democrats are claiming victory after Francine Busby’s 44% showing in Tuesday’s special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham (R). But her fight to get over 50% in the June 6 run-off in the San Diego-area congressional seat is certainly uphill. Busby’s showing was equivalent to John Kerry’s performance in the 50th District in the 2004 […]

Have Democrats Expanded the Field for ’06 House Races?

For more than a year now, House Democrats have insisted that they want to widen the political playing field by recruiting strong candidates in districts they often have ignored. Now, with about 40 percent of state filing deadlines having already passed, it’s time to ask: How have the Democrats done? The short answer is that […]

Both Parties Guilty of Ballot Games

While some Democrats are incensed about the way former Majority Leader Tom DeLay chose to exit his race for reelection in Texas 22, both parties are guilty of being coy with election laws, primaries, and filing deadlines to gain a partisan advantage. Of all the accusations hurled at DeLay, being politically unaware is not one […]