Analysis

4217 Results

New Hampshire 1: Democrats Cheer, but ‘06 Recruit Stumbles

As Democratic leaders scramble for the hilltops to shout the results of last night’s victories in Virginia and New Jersey, one down ballot race in New Hampshire symbolizes part of the Democrats’ challenge next year. Three-term incumbent Mayor Bob Baines (D) lost reelection in Manchester, 51%-48%, to Republican Alderman Frank Guinta. In his victory, Guinta […]

2005 Statewide Ballot Initiative Results

Here are the latest results, as of 10 am ET Nov. 9, for the key statewideballot measures on the Nov. 8 ballot. California Prop. 73. Requires parental notification for minors seeking anabortion, except in cases of medical emergency or with a judicial waiver. 47% Yes, 53% No, 100% reporting California Prop. 74. Extends employment time […]

It’s Worth Your While to Watch the Off-Year Elections

Longtime readers of this column are probably well aware of my habit of downplaying the national importance of off-year gubernatorial elections, on the grounds that those contests say much more about the particular candidates involved and the political dynamics of the state than about the national mood or the president. This year, I’m not so […]

New Print Edition: NM1 & Washington Senate

The new November 4, 2005 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here is a sample from the current issue. New Mexico 1: Repeat DefenderBy Nathan L. Gonzales First District Cong. Heather Wilson (R) is no stranger to Democratic target lists. Since her initial election back in 1998, Democrats […]

In Need of Fresh Start, Can Bush Turn the Page on Bad News?

So now what? The president has had a horrible year. But he’ll still be in the Oval Office for another three years. So how does he turn things around, assuming of course that he doesn’t just want to chop wood and cut brush? I asked a number of veterans of past Washington, D.C., wars about […]

House Handicapping Is Getting Very Silly, Very Quickly

I have already written that the 2006 election cycle offers Democrats an excellent opportunity to make serious gains in the House, possibly even the 15 seats they need to win a House majority. A Democratic wave seems likely to develop. That said, some of the early assertions being thrown around about how many competitive House […]

Many Republicans Look Ready to Gamble on Immigration Reform

A fight on Capitol Hill over immigration reform now appears inevitable, even though it carries considerable risk for the GOP. Rank-and-file Republicans are up in arms over illegal immigration into the United States, and they are demanding legislative action. Nothing illustrates the division within Republican ranks on the issue more clearly than the very different […]

Democratic Strategists, Take Note: It’s Time to Think Big

For the first time in a dozen years, the political environment looks right for generic party advertising. But tight finances and the difficulty in getting party committees to agree on a single message could dampen interest in a strategy that worked well in 1980 and 1982 but poorly ever since. If that last paragraph seems […]

Is the House GOP’s Ace in the Hole Really a Deuce?

This week’s CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll numbers aren’t startling because they weren’t different from others we’ve seen recently. The president’s job ratings are bad. Congress’ job rating is low. A majority of Americans think the country is headed off on the wrong track. But while National Republican Congressional Committee operatives have acknowledged the national mood is […]

In Modern Politics, It’s Open Season on Congressional Leaders

Once upon a time, there was a Congress. And that Congress was made up of leaders and followers. The most important among them were the majority leaders, their whips and, in the House of Representatives, the Speaker. And the leaders were powerful men (yes, Virginia, they were always men in the old days) who marshalled […]